How Cohort Effects Are Reshaping Faculty Hiring
PhDs awarded between 2020 and 2024 entered the academic job market under unique conditions. Five years on, the cohort's outcomes are revealing how much the academic pipeline depends on timing.
Faculty hiring in US higher education has always been influenced by timing. PhDs graduating during recessions or boom years enter the market with different prospects, and those differences can persist throughout careers. The cohort that earned doctorates between 2020 and 2024 has lived through one of the most unusual periods in modern academic hiring, and a 2025 study from the American Council on Education tracks what has happened to them.
The study followed 8,400 PhDs across humanities, social sciences, and STEM disciplines from graduation through five years of career outcomes. The findings illuminate how cohort effects compound over time in academic careers.
The 2020-2024 Conditions
The cohort entered job markets that were unusual in several ways. Tenure-track openings dropped sharply in 2020 and 2021 across most disciplines, as universities froze hiring during pandemic-era budget uncertainty. The market partially recovered in 2022 and 2023 but never returned to pre-2020 levels. Several disciplines, particularly in humanities, saw permanent reductions in tenure-track positions that have not been reversed.
The graduate students who finished during these years also experienced disruptions to their training. Conferences moved online and back in unpredictable patterns. Research access to archives, laboratories, and fieldwork was constrained. Mentorship was often conducted at distance. The disruptions affected the credentials these students carried into the market.
The Tenure-Track Outcomes
Among the cohort, 28 percent secured tenure-track positions within five years of completing their PhDs. The number is significantly lower than historical averages, which had hovered between 38 and 45 percent over the previous two decades. The drop was concentrated in humanities, where tenure-track placement fell from 35 percent for pre-2020 cohorts to 19 percent for the 2020-2024 cohort.
STEM fields fared somewhat better, with tenure-track placement of 32 percent compared to 39 percent for the previous cohort. Social sciences fell in between, with placement of 26 percent compared to 35 percent.
What the Other 72 Percent Did
The majority of the cohort did not secure tenure-track positions. Their trajectories varied widely. Roughly 30 percent entered non-tenure-track academic positions, including postdoctoral fellowships, teaching positions, and research staff appointments. Another 25 percent left academia for industry positions, often in fields related to their doctoral training. About 12 percent entered government or nonprofit work. The remaining 5 percent reported precarious employment or were no longer in the labor force.
The non-tenure-track academic positions varied significantly in quality. Postdoctoral fellowships at well-funded institutions often produced strong career outcomes, with many fellows transitioning to tenure-track positions in subsequent years. Adjunct teaching positions, by contrast, often produced sustained financial precarity without clear paths to more stable work.
The Industry Pivot
One of the more striking findings was the success of cohort members who pivoted to industry. PhDs who entered tech, finance, consulting, and pharmaceutical industries reported median incomes significantly higher than peers in academic positions, and their satisfaction levels were also higher on most measures. The industry pivot was particularly pronounced in fields where doctoral skills translate readily: computer science, statistics, biology, economics.
“The cohort discovered that academic training is more transferable than the academic culture had told them,” said Dr. Bobbi Vasilieva, who co-authored the ACE study. “Many would have made the pivot earlier if they had known how positive the outcomes would be.”
The Mentorship Question
One factor that strongly predicted career outcomes was the engagement of doctoral advisers in career advising. PhDs whose advisers actively helped them consider non-academic options reported smoother transitions and stronger outcomes than peers whose advisers focused exclusively on academic placement. The pattern held across disciplines, though it was strongest in humanities and social sciences, where the academic-only norm has been most entrenched.
“Some of our most successful PhDs had advisers who were comfortable saying that the academic job market might not work out and that their PhD was preparation for many things beyond it,” said Dr. Vasilieva. “The students whose advisers refused to acknowledge that often had harder transitions.”
The Geographic Effect
Geographic flexibility also strongly predicted academic placement. Cohort members willing to take positions in any region of the country had placement rates roughly twice as high as peers who restricted their search to coastal cities or specific regions. The pattern was particularly strong for women and for parents of young children, who often have more constraints on geographic mobility.
The cohort effect interacted with the geographic effect. Because tenure-track positions were scarcer overall, the penalty for geographic restriction was larger than for previous cohorts. Candidates who restricted their searches found themselves competing for very few positions.
What This Means for Current PhD Students
For current doctoral students and recent PhDs, the research offers several practical implications. The academic job market has structurally tightened in ways that pre-2020 mentors may not fully appreciate. Career planning that considers multiple pathways, including industry, government, and nonprofit options, is no longer optional for most disciplines.
Building skills that translate across sectors during doctoral training, including programming, quantitative analysis, project management, and writing for non-specialist audiences, significantly improves career flexibility. Doctoral programs that integrate these skills produce graduates with more options. Programs that focus exclusively on academic preparation produce graduates whose options have narrowed.
The Institutional Response
Universities are slowly adapting. Several institutions have established “PhD beyond academia” programs that provide structured support for non-academic career exploration. The University of Pennsylvania, the University of California system, and a network of major research universities have established formal partnerships with industry employers who hire PhD graduates.
The adaptation is uneven. Many programs still treat non-academic placement as failure rather than success. The institutions that move past that framing tend to produce stronger career outcomes for their students.
Looking Forward
The cohort effects identified in the ACE study are likely to influence academic hiring for years. As the 2020-2024 cohort finds positions of various kinds, they will become the senior faculty and senior professionals of the late 2030s and 2040s. The institutions and disciplines that adapted to their reality have positioned themselves to benefit from their talents. The institutions that did not have lost capacity that will be hard to rebuild.
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